Cryptic econo-tweet of the morning; Updated
Current Intrade probabilites:
Mitt Romney: 38.6%
Barack Obama: 60.4%
Some have wondered why the two probabilities sum to less than 100%.
We’re not sure, but we think Tyler Cowen, an economics professor at George Mason University, is suggesting that the Intrade market is factoring in the risk of assassination.
Update: Cowen clarifies:
To clarify: MR + BO < 1 on InTrade is most likely due to the prospect of one of the candidates dropping out.
— tylercowen (@tylercowen) July 21, 2012