Cryptic econo-tweet of the morning; Updated!/tylercowen/status/226650612346015744

Current Intrade probabilites:

Mitt Romney: 38.6%

Barack Obama: 60.4%

Some have wondered why the two probabilities sum to less than 100%.

We’re not sure, but we think Tyler Cowen, an economics professor at George Mason University, is suggesting that the Intrade market is factoring in the risk of assassination.

Update: Cowen clarifies:

To clarify: MR + BO < 1 on InTrade is most likely due to the prospect of one of the candidates dropping out.

— tylercowen (@tylercowen) July 21, 2012


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